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Donald Trump suffers triple polling blow in 48 hours after guilty verdict

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Former President Donald Trump has suffered losses in three separate polls in the 48 hours since his guilty verdict in his Manhattan criminal trial.

A New York jury on Thursday found Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records relating to a hush money payment made to adult film star Stormy Daniels by Trump’s then-lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen shortly before the 2016 presidential election. Daniels alleges she had a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, which he denies. Trump has maintained his innocence, claiming the case is politically motivated, and his lawyers plan to fight the verdict and appeal the case if necessary.

In a YouGov snap poll conducted just hours after the verdict was announced, 50 percent of the 3,040 U.S. adults who were polled said they believed Trump was guilty, while 30 percent said they believed he was not guilty. Another 19 percent said they were not sure. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percent.

When broken down into party lines, 15 percent of Republicans think he is guilty while 64 percent do not, 48 percent of independents think Trump is guilty while 25 percent do not, and 86 percent of Democrats believe he is guilty while 5 percent do not. A total of 831 Republicans, 1,114 independents, and 1,113 Democrats were surveyed. The margin of error of the subgroups are unclear.

Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump arrives to Trump Tower on Thursday in New York City. Trump has suffered losses in three separate polls in the 48 hours since his guilty verdict in his Manhattan criminal trial.
Former President Donald Trump arrives to Trump Tower on Thursday in New York City. Trump has suffered losses in three separate polls in the 48 hours since his guilty verdict in his Manhattan criminal trial.
James Devaney/GC Images

A Morning Consult poll conducted on Friday found 54 percent of registered voters approve of the jury’s verdict while 39 percent disapprove. Across party lines, 18 percent of Republicans approve of the verdict while 74 percent disapprove, 52 percent of independents approve while 33 disapprove and 88 percent of Democrats approve while 8 percent disapprove. The poll surveyed 2,220 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The sizes and margins of error of the subsamples are also unclear.

Of the 2,220 registered voters, 51 percent said Trump should end his presidential campaign, while 43 percent said he should not. The majority of Republicans surveyed in the poll (79 percent) believe Trump should not drop out, however, 15 percent said he should. Meanwhile, 87 percent of Trump supporters don’t want him to end his campaign while 8 percent do. The margin of error for the Republican subsample is unclear.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between Thursday and Friday found that 5 percent of Republicans and 21 percent of independents said they are much less likely to vote for Trump because of the jury’s ruling. Meanwhile, 30 percent of Republicans and 13 percent of independents said the verdict made them much more likely to vote for Trump. However, the majority of Republicans (55 percent), independents (58 percent), and Democrats (58 percent) said the verdict didn’t change their minds on whether or not to vote for the former president.

The subsample of Republicans was 828 U.S. adults (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent), independents was 708 (with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percent), and Democrats was 774 (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent).

Meanwhile, Steven Cheung, Trump’s campaign communications director, told Newsweek via email on Saturday, “President Trump has seen an outpouring support, which has led to polling increases and record-shattering fundraising numbers that include close to $53 million in just 24 hours, 30% of those who are new donors.”

He also mentioned a snap Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll taken after Thursday’s verdict, which found that Trump’s approval rating was up by 6 percentage points compared to those who disapproved.

A total of 22 percent of likely voters had a more positive view of Trump after his guilty verdict while 16 percent had a more negative view. Meanwhile, 32 percent of likely voters who already had a negative view of Trump had no change of opinion while 27 percent of likely voters who already had a positive view of Trump had no change. The poll surveyed 403 likely voters from Thursday to Friday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.


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Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals  Course

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from Grey Dynamics.

Course

Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals 

Accredited

Online

Self-paced

Workshops

Now that information has been collected and processed, it’s time to use it to answer the intelligence customer’s requirements and the critical thinking stage: Intelligence Analysis.

This course focuses on the basics of intelligence analysis and serves as an introduction for the more in-depth courses on analysis.

From Data to Answers:

  • Understanding the Customer: The course will emphasize the importance of understanding the intelligence customer’s needs and requirements. Analysts must tailor their analysis to address specific questions and provide insights relevant to the customer’s decision-making process.
  • The Analytical Toolkit: You’ll explore various analytical techniques employed by intelligence professionals. Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) like critical thinking frameworks and hypothesis testing offer a systematic approach to analyzing information and drawing well-supported conclusions.

Thinking Like an Analyst:

  • Critical Thinking and Reasoning: This section will hone your critical thinking and reasoning skills, essential for effective intelligence analysis. You’ll learn to assess the credibility of sources, identify biases, and weigh evidence to arrive at sound judgments.
  • Pattern Recognition and Anomaly Detection: The course will explore techniques for identifying patterns and uncovering anomalies within the analyzed data. Recognizing emerging trends and spotting deviations from the norm can be crucial for anticipating threats or opportunities.
  • Uncertainty Management: The real world is rarely black and white. You’ll learn how to manage uncertainty by assessing the confidence level of intelligence and clearly communicating the limitations of the analysis to the customer.

Crafting Compelling Analyses:

  • Writing Clear and Concise Reports: This section will equip you with the skills to write clear, concise, and well-organized intelligence reports. Presenting complex information in a readily digestible format is vital for effective communication with decision-makers.
  • Visualization Techniques: You’ll learn how to utilize charts, graphs, and other visual aids to enhance the clarity and impact of your intelligence analyses. Presenting data visually can help customers grasp complex relationships and trends more effectively.

The Evolving Landscape:

  • Cognitive Bias and Deception: The course might touch upon the challenges of cognitive bias and deception in intelligence analysis. You’ll learn how to mitigate these biases and identify potential attempts by adversaries to mislead or manipulate intelligence collection and analysis.
  • The Future of Analysis: Exploring emerging trends like the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in assisting with complex data analysis and the integration of new data sources like social media could also be covered.

Expected Learning Outcomes:

By the end of this course, you should be able to:

  • Articulate the role of intelligence analysis in meeting customer requirements.
  • Apply various Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) to analyze intelligence data.
  • Demonstrate critical thinking and reasoning skills for intelligence analysis.
  • Identify patterns, anomalies, and manage uncertainty within intelligence information.
  • Write clear, concise, and visually engaging intelligence reports.
  • Recognize the challenges of cognitive bias and deception in intelligence analysis.

The Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals course equips you with the analytical skills and knowledge necessary to transform intelligence data into valuable insights that inform decision-making across various intelligence disciplines.

Who this program is for:

The courses of the Intelligence Cycle Fundamentals program, are designed as an introductory window into the world of Intelligence, thus no previous training or education on Intelligence is required.

The courses of this program are for anybody who wants to engage with intelligence in their career right now, or in the future. These could be researchers, journalists, analysts, policymakers, security professionals and much more.

Content Warning: 

This course deals with the common types of work in the intelligence industry and therefore features broad discussions of issues such as conflict, terrorism, and natural disasters. We also provide links to historic documents that deal with these topics throughout the course. We include this context because they are common topics in intelligence and are the subject of most historic and declassified documents. For specific concerns about the nature of any content please contact <a href=”mailto:school@greydynamics.com”>school@greydynamics.com</a>.

Instructors

Ahmed Hassan

CEO & Founder

I’m Ahmed Hassan the CEO of Grey Dynamics and you will see me in most of our courses. I have over 12 years of experience in the intelligence and security sector across government and private sector. I hold an MA in Intelligence and International Security Studies with a specialisation in counterintelligence, strategic forecasting and information security. Over the last 6 years, I have trained and mentored analysts. My objective with the Grey Dynamics Intelligence School is to demystify intelligence and prepare capable intelligence professionals. 

Marcel Plichta

I’m Marcel Plichta, the Lead Instructor & Grey Dynamics Intelligence School Manager. I am a former analyst for the U.S. Department of Defense and PhD candidate at the University of St Andrews. I have taught and briefed on a variety of international relations and intelligence topics, including foreign policy analysis, African security, and emerging technologies. Currently, I hold a fellowship at the Centre for Global Law and Governance and wrote for Foreign Policy, the Irregular Warfare Initiative, and, the Counterterrorism Sentinel at West Point.

Contact

Have further questions? Feel free to email us at school@greydynamics.com.


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Israeli, Egyptian and US officials to hold talks Sunday on reopening Rafah Crossing – The Times of Israel

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Israeli, Egyptian and US officials to hold talks Sunday on reopening Rafah Crossing  The Times of Israel

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Biden administration says Israel hasn’t crossed red line in Rafah – Chicago Tribune

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Biden administration says Israel hasn’t crossed red line in Rafah  Chicago Tribune

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IDF Strikes Hezbollah Targets In Lebanon: Over 40 Attacks In 72 Hours| LIVE UPDATES – I24NEWS – i24NEWS

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IDF Strikes Hezbollah Targets In Lebanon: Over 40 Attacks In 72 Hours| LIVE UPDATES – I24NEWS  i24NEWS

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US official who quit over Gaza says pressure from White House is silencing dissent – The Independent

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US official who quit over Gaza says pressure from White House is silencing dissent  The Independent

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Biden ceasefire plan would leave Hamas in control of Gaza – The Jerusalem Post

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Biden ceasefire plan would leave Hamas in control of Gaza  The Jerusalem Post

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Berlin lets Ukraine use German weapons against targets in Russia after the US also eases its stance

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KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Germany joined the United States on Friday in authorizing Ukraine to hit some targets on Russian soil with the long-range weapons they are supplying — a significant policy change that comes as depleted Ukrainian troops are losing ground in the war.

Ukrainian officials have expressed frustration over restrictions on the use of Western weapons — especially as the border region of Kharkiv has endured a Russian onslaught this month that has stretched Kyiv’s outgunned and outmanned forces.

Both Germany and the U.S. specifically authorized the use of weapons to defend Kharkiv, whose capital city of the same name lies only 20 kilometers (12 miles) from Russia. Russian ballistic missiles slammed into an apartment building in the city overnight, Ukrainian officials said, killing at least six people.

Beyond offering Ukraine a chance of better protecting Kharkiv by targeting Russian capabilities in the region, it’s not clear what effect the easing of restrictions might have on the direction of the conflict in what is proving to be a critical period. But it drew a furious response from Moscow and warnings it could draw Russia into war with NATO.

AP correspondent Charles de Ledesma reports on Russia’s unrelenting attacks on Kharviv.

The German government said Ukraine can use weapons it supplies against positions just over the border, from where Russia launches its attacks on Kharkiv. A day earlier, U.S. President Joe Biden gave Kyiv a green light to strike back with American weapons at Russian military assets targeting the region, according to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Blinken said Kyiv had asked Washington for permission to use U.S.-supplied weapons against the Kremlin’s troops amassing on the Russian side of the border for attacks inside Ukraine. Biden’s approval was for that purpose, Blinken said at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Prague.

U.S. officials, who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter, stressed that the U.S. policy calling on Ukraine not to use American-provided ATACMS or long-range missiles and other munitions to strike offensively inside Russia has not changed.

In response, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, said Friday that “Ukraine and its NATO allies will receive such a devastating response that the alliance won’t be able to avoid entering the conflict” — an eventuality that Western governments have ruled out.

Western leaders have hesitated to ease the restrictions on their weapons because of the risk it would provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly warned that the West’s direct involvement could put the world on a path to nuclear conflict. Last week, Russia said military drills involving tactical nuclear weapons had begun.

But as Russia has recently gained the battlefield initiative in some parts of the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line, some Western leaders have pushed for a policy change allowing Kyiv to strike military bases inside Russia with sophisticated long-range weapons provided by its Western partners.

The Kremlin’s bigger and better-equipped army is exploiting Ukrainian shortages in troops and ammunition after a lengthy delay in U.S. military aid. Western Europe’s inadequate military production has also slowed crucial deliveries to Ukraine.

The German government statement noted that, in recent weeks, Russia has prepared, coordinated and carried out attacks on the Kharkiv region, in particular from areas just over the border in Russia.

“Together we are convinced that Ukraine has the right under international law to defend itself against these attacks,” the statement said. “For this, it can also use the weapons delivered for that purpose in accordance with its international legal commitments, including the ones delivered by us,” it added.

The question of whether to allow Ukraine to hit targets on Russian soil with Western-supplied weaponry has been a delicate issue since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Friday he supported lifting the limits on Ukraine’s use of Western weaponry, saying it’s “a matter of upholding international law — Ukraine’s right to self-defense.”

“Putin wanted to deter the NATO allies from supporting Ukraine. But we are not and we will not be deterred,” Stoltenberg said.

Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström noted that his country had not restricted Ukraine’s use of its weapons at all, while Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said Rome won’t let Kyiv use Italian weapons outside its territory.

In Moscow, Medvedev repeated Russian warnings that the steps being taken could set NATO and Russia on the path to a nuclear conflict. “It’s not an attempt to scare or any sort of a nuclear bluff,” he said.

Russia’s newly appointed defense minister, Andrei Belousov, claimed Friday that Russian troops are “advancing in all tactical directions,” including in the Kharkiv region where he said they have pushed Ukrainian forces back by as much as 9 kilometers (5 miles). Russian forces captured 28 towns and villages over the past month, he said.

Overall since the start of the year, Russian forces have taken control of 880 square kilometers (340 square miles) of territory, he added.

It was not possible to verify his battlefield claims.

Overnight into Friday, Russia launched five ballistic missiles at Kharkiv, Ukraine’s air force said. One of them struck a residential building close to midnight and was followed by another missile 25 minutes later that hit first responders, according to regional Gov. Oleh Syniehubov.

Six people were killed, according to Syniehubov, and at least 25 were wounded.

Ukrainian officials have previously accused Russia of targeting rescue workers by hitting residential buildings with two consecutive missiles — the first one to draw emergency crews to the scene and the second one to wound or kill them. Russia used the method in Syria’s civil war.

Apart from Kharkiv, Moscow’s troops are pressing in the Donetsk region further south and are assembling a force for an expected attack in the Sumy region further north, according to Ukrainian officials.

___

Lee and Janicek reported from Prague. Associated Press writers Geir Moulson in Berlin and Ellen Knickmeyer, Aamer Madhani and Zeke Miller in Washington contributed to this report.

___

Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine


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Attack Trump verdict or be exiled – a new test for Republicans

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13 hours ago

Katty Kay,US Special Correspondent

grey-placeholder.pngREUTERS/Andrew Kelly Donald Trump waving outside Trump Tower in New York CityREUTERS/Andrew Kelly

There’s a new front line in Donald Trump’s battle to get elected.

Just minutes after he was found guilty on all 34 felony counts on Thursday, I heard from a person close to the former president who described this moment as a “civil war” within the Republican Party.

The historic nature of Trump’s criminal conviction is being leveraged by his campaign as a sort of roll-call vote to see which politicians will defend the former president and which of them will defend America’s legal system. It appears you can’t do both.

Last night, a weather balloon was sent up.

Larry Hogan, a moderate Republican who is running for an open Senate seat in liberal-leaning Maryland, took to social media to urge all Americans to “respect the verdict and the legal process”.

Within minutes, Chris LaCivita, a top official on Trump’s campaign, posted a crystal-clear reply to Mr Hogan: “You just ended your campaign.” The implication: if you’re not with us on this, you’re politically dead.

grey-placeholder.pngREUTERS/Brian Snyder Former Maryland Governor Larry HoganREUTERS/Brian Snyder

Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has been a Trump critic for years

I asked a different Republican official who had worked on Trump’s last presidential campaign whether he agreed that this moment was a “civil war” for his party. He dismissed the idea. To him, it seems any war that once existed within his party was won long ago – by Donald Trump.

“Even if you don’t like Trump, he’s better than what we’ve got [in Joe Biden],” he said. “It’s an easy choice.”

And for now, it seems that the vast majority of Republican politicians agree with him – at least in public.

Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson said that Thursday was “a shameful day in American history” and that Trump’s conviction was “a purely political exercise, not a legal one.” Steve Scalise, another top Republican in Congress, said that America’s legal system was operating like a banana republic. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis compared the process to a “kangaroo court”.

grey-placeholder.pngBanner saying 'Trump convicted'

But the fiercest defence of the former president may have come from Florida Senator Marco Rubio – who, back in 2016 when they were rivals for the Republican nomination, was one of Trump’s most vocal critics.

“This is a quintessential show trial,” Rubio said. “This is what you see in communist countries. This is what I grew up having people in the [Cuban exile] community tell me about. It happened in the days after the Castro revolution.”

Comparing America’s system of justice – with its independent juries and open trials and rule of law – to that of communist Cuba will stun many Americans. Mr Rubio isn’t just saying that these particular jurors made the wrong call in finding Trump guilty. He is going much further than that. He is making a full-blown denunciation of America’s legal system at large.

grey-placeholder.pngREUTERS/Joe Skipper Florida Sen. Marco RubioREUTERS/Joe Skipper

Florida’s Senator Rubio has become a strong Trump supporter

But there’s a clear political strategy here. These types of defences align with Trump’s larger belief that many of his issues are not with individuals – whether they be voters or jurors. Instead, he feels that many of the bedrock structures of American government, like its electoral process and its judicial system, its media, its intelligence agencies, are fundamentally and unfairly rigged against him. It’s why, at his rallies, he calls for the “deep state” to be dismantled, to great cheers.

In Trump’s eyes, a claim that America’s legal system is functioning properly is a de facto critique of him – and to criticise him risks alienating both the former president and his sizable base of supporters within the party. It’s a step that many Republican officials are wary of taking.

It’s too early to tell whether this moment could still bubble into a civil war among Republicans or whether Trump’s years-long grip on his party will ultimately stifle any meaningful wave of dissent.

What’s apparent, though, is how ferocious the Trump camp has been in shoring up support.

Throughout Donald Trump’s political career, there have been a handful of scandalous moments where there was a very real risk that he could lose the support of his party: the Access Hollywood tape, his impeachments, his indictments, the FBI raid on his home – the list goes on.

For now, he seems to have avoided losing the most prominent politicians within his party. But the same might not be true for voters.

Earlier this month, an ABC News/IPSOS poll found that one fifth of Donald Trump’s supporters said they would either reconsider or withdraw their support for him if he were convicted of a felony.

In an era when presidential elections are ultimately decided by a few thousand voters in a few swing states, it remains to be seen whether this guilty verdict will ultimately move that dial.


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